Thursday, June 16, 2011

Light at end of the tunnel in Somali war

The killing of Mohammed Abdullah Fazul in Mogadishu last Monday, nearly a month after the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, has dealt a major blow to Somali militia group al Shabaab which has been fighting the Transitional Federal Government.

Mr Fazul was not only head of al Qaeda’s East African cell, but also a key player in al Shabaab operations in Somalia.

His death follows that of another al Qaeda operative, Mombasa-born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan believed to have been the leader of the group’s cell in Kenya.

The two were among Osama bin Laden’s top commanders and they were linked to the 1998 twin US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam and the 2002 Kikambala Paradise Hotel attack that happened simultaneously with an attempt to bring down an Israeli airliner that was leaving Moi International Airport in Mombasa.

Central authority

Their deaths have thrown al Shabaab into a spin and emboldened the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) which has waged a vicious war on the militia group. Al Shabaab emerged in the 1990s following the absence of a central authority in Somalia.

A network of local Islamic courts emerged, establishing a level of law and order in parts of the country that was welcomed by many Somalis.

The courts’ leadership varied in their ideological approaches, representing diverse views on political Islam, Somali nationalism, and clan identity.

Harakat Al Shabaab Al Mujahidin (“Mujahidin Youth Movement” or MYM, hereafter al Shabaab), a militia loosely affiliated with the courts, emerged in 2003-2004 under young former AIAI commanders who had fought in Afghanistan.

Unlike the courts and their individual militias, which were largely clan-based and nationalist in their agenda, al Shabaab’s leadership drew from across clans, ascribing to a broader vision of uniting Somali-inhabited areas of East Africa under an Islamist caliphate.

Al Shabaab’s vision for Somalia ran counter to the political transition proposed under the auspices of the nascent TFG of Somalia.

The secular TFG was intended to preside over a five-year period culminating in elections, but it faced opposition from clan, militia, and Islamist leaders, as well as internal struggles, and was initially unable to establish itself in Mogadishu, moving instead to the city of Baidoa.

Tensions in Mogadishu rose between the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and a group of warlords known as the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), reportedly supported by Ethiopia and the United States for their purported efforts to capture suspected al Qaeda operatives.

By mid-2006, UIC militia had taken Mogadishu and some surrounding areas, and by year’s end they occupied much of southern and central Somalia. Al Shabaab’s influence in the UIC grew during this time.

Divisions grew

Efforts to mediate between the UIC and the TFG failed as divisions within the UIC grew, culminating in a declaration of jihad against Ethiopia by UIC hardliners, led by former AIAI leader Hassan Dahir Aweys.

In December 2006, at the TFG’s behest, the Ethiopian military advanced on Mogadishu; within weeks, the UIC militias were defeated.

The United States, which viewed the UIC’s armed wing to be associated with al Qaeda and its political leadership unwilling to address concerns regarding alleged links, was supportive of Ethiopia’s operations.

The US also conducted air strikes in early January 2007 against suspected al Qaeda operatives reportedly fighting alongside UIC militia.

A promised AU peacekeeping force for Somalia was slow to materialise, and in subsequent months an increasingly complex insurgency emerged, feeding on historic anti-Ethiopian sentiment among Somalis and a lack of TFG capacity to secure territory without Ethiopian military support.

A message broadcast in January 2007 from prominent al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri calling for jihadists to support Somali efforts and attack Ethiopia may have contributed to insurgent recruitment.

Intense fighting between Somali insurgents and TFG and allied Ethiopian forces forced over 700,000 from the city, and human rights abuses were reportedly widespread.

Source: The Daily Nation

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