The process of dividing the territories of post-independence Somalia into a set of dependencies on regional powers namely Ethiopia and Kenya has entered its second phase. Kenyan and Somali TFG troops say they will push deeper into insurgent-controlled territory in southern Somalia. Kenya’s military objectives in Somalia is no longer unclear since they become part of AMISOM with the idea now floated that Kenya will not be satisfied until it meets up with the other AMISOM and TFG troops who are due to move from Mogadishu to the city of Marka or Brawa as Ban Ki Moo had suggested in his meeting with UN security council.
Problems are raising since Kenya’s invasion to Somalia. The first problem is that the west and UN Security Council who supported the invasion of Somalia, wanted the invasion to deliver a quick knockout blow to Al-Shabaab, but due to rainy season the military operations could not go as intended.
The second problem is that the invasion has pulled Somalia’s regional rival Ethiopia back into the country and stirred up the warlords who would replace Al-Shabab with regional authorities that would be dependent on Kenya and Ethiopia; this is rekindling a popular support for Al-Shabab.
Ethiopia went into Somalia some four and a half years ago and stayed for approximately two and a half to three years. That effort was not universally successful and led in fact to the rise of Al-Shabaab after Ethiopians pulled out. Knowing the results of Ethiopia’s bloody invasion of Somalia in 2006, the AU’s invitation to dispatch neighboring countries namely Kenyan and Ethiopia troops to Somalia will be another counterproductive and undiplomatic move.
With troops from six African nations now operating on Somali soil backed by the military power of the United States and other Westerner countries, Al-Shabab is trying to capitalize on traditional Somali xenophobia and nationalism to preserve and even expand the radical Islamist movement.
Source: The Nomad Times
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