Enhancing Security and Stability.Tackling Islamic Extremism and Piracy.Addressing the root causes of the Somali conflict.Agreeing on coordinated international package of support for Somalia’s regions.
Whilst, there have been a number of conferences held to revive the Somali state and install a working government in Somalia this is the first of its kind to bring all Somali stakeholders as well as important world leaders and Non-Governmental Organisations together, outside of the region. Moreover, the London conference proposes a substantially broader and arguably more focussed agenda, as set out above.
It offers all parties and stakeholders, exceptional opportunities in driving progressive change towards peace, security and stability. A negative outcome for either of the principle protagonists particularly and Somaliland, also presents the great risk of inadvertently escalating and widening the risk of regional instability, in a way not imagined by the international community. As hard as it is to believe for outsiders, the nightmare of South Central can actually get worse. Anticipation of the outcomes of the London conference has already raised the temperature in the Somali polity, both in country and across the various international diasporas. This article is an attempt to chart a way forward for Somalis and generate practical ideas/recommendations.
It is clear that piracy and extremism are the driving force for the London conference, with every other consideration, essentially a secondary afterthought, as they most directly impinge upon western economic and security interests. Particularly, Britain is worried that the impact may be felt on its streets as it hosts large Somali diaspora. However, it would be a mistake to give priority to these two subjects over the root causes of the conflict. Any outcome that does not address this will be patchy and unsatisfying. Piracy and extremism are not the causes of the Somali civil war but they are the product of it, and as long as the Somalis are engaged in civil strife the obvious implications would be a raise of piracy and extremism in the region.
Clearly the establishment of a viable working government which is able to exert its authority across the country would be a major step forward in security and stability. But the extent that this will happen will largely depend upon the agreements of this conference. Will it address the stark realities on the ground? Will it open up “new roads”? Will it facilitate an amicable negotiated settlement between Somaliland and Somalia? These are the obstacles and the barriers that sectionalise and fragment Somalis. A clear understanding of the existing conditions and the past failed conferences should result not of similar actions or outcomes. The culmination of cultural influences, tribal rivalries, individualistic ambitions and a bloody civil war rendered Somalis incapable of reconciling their respective positions with the practical way forward. So the issue of security and stability in Somalia has to be looked at in a two tier approach i.e., Somalia and Somalia and Somaliland.
Somalia
Apart from the failure of the Somalia’s politicians, traditional elders, religious figures and intellectual group, the single most important reason why Somalia remained in conflict for over twenty years, is the international community’s inability to coordinate its policies and test them against tangible results. The policies thus far were aimed at achieving limited and short term objectives. Every government of the international community was taking its own measures in accordance with its own interests, and was happy to deal with any group that could assist the realisation of these objectives. Even the current military intervention was not well coordinated between the alliances from the beginning. Therefore, a close cooperation between the interested groups in handling the Somali affairs is essential. International community must coordinate its funding, military operations and its engagement with the representatives of the Somali people.
The UN and the other NGOs in Nairobi have failed on all these accounts, and as a direct consequence of their actions threatened the security of Somaliland and the stable places in Somalia. By engaging with anyone who claims the authority of his people and providing funds without accountability created the impression that establishing a mini state would generate more income for development in that area or offer an opportunity to fulfil leadership ambition.
Direct funding to Somalis and the Somali government should be conditioned upon positive results. They should not be used to create insecurity in the region. Also authority should not be extended to anyone who mobilises a few henchmen and the diaspora to cause instability. Pressure must be brought to bear on the Transitional Government to observe and reinforce security, and not deal with those who intend to destabilise the peaceful parts of the country or in Somaliland. The TFG is quick to extend a hand of friendship and treat as a representative to anyone from Somaliland, who opposes the Somaliland’s right to self-determination with violent means. That is not a good way to create harmony among Somalis.
The working relationship between the TFG and the other regional administrations must be improved. There has to be a clear picture of what Somalia should look like in their minds so that it becomes easier to see where the converging point is. Although they are all busy with fighting Al-Shabab, there is no guarantee that they all agree upon how Somalia should be run. The divisions may become more apparent when the unifying threat evaporates. This is even more critical for counter-terrorism and counter-piracy. Until now some regional administrations considered their economic interests to be aligned with piracy and allowed the pirates to operate in their areas at will. This is where the provisions of regional financial assistance that is dependent upon good governance and regional development becomes very important. In many ways, the introduction of a Joint Financial Management Board with the ability to scrutinise where/who is getting funds and how they are being spent is a very welcome idea.
These are remedies to increase the chances of recovery but as to the prevention of piracy, eradication of extremism and the mitigation of natural disasters, more far-reaching in its implication is the proper lack of authority in the country. Somaliland has shown, with functioning government, that these could be prevented or mitigated. In 1993, the extremists first attempted to set up a training camp in Somaliland but Mohammed Ibrahim Egal’s government raided their camps, confiscated their equipment and disbanded them. Somaliland fights piracy and has made it impossible for pirates to operate on its shores. The recent famine that has devastated Horn of Africa affected Somaliland too but the aid agencies had unhindered access and the government was in a good position to organise a relieve effort. These are clear evidence that proper authority works but achieving it in Somalia is proving to be a difficult challenge. This is why there is an urgent need for addressing the root causes of the conflict and settling the issue of Somaliland and Somalia.
Somalia and Somaliland
Most from Somalia would unhesitatingly cry out for Somali unity but their vision is coloured by twenty years of conflict to the extent that they have developed amnesia about how they got here in the first place. Somalia has never been internally united. After the initial emotionally charged euphoria of the unlawful union of the 1960, the real structures of the Somali way of life had emerged. As I mentioned in detail in another article, the cultural tribal formation of the Somali people means there has never been a natural bondage between the Somalis. Distrust and suspicion always replace the shared commonalities.
Somaliland people remember the civil war, the brutal legacy of the Siad Barre’s regime, the economic and intellectual oppression, the violation of their basic human dignity and the ethnic cleansing. These are grim memories which awaken opposition to remarriage with Somalia. If Somalia and Somaliland do not come to a negotiated settlement, it is more than probable that they may go to war again. The sense of uncertainty has already been exploited by those individuals who (with their short-sighted views and interests) are intent on piling new problems on top of the existing ones in the region. Somaliland is driven by grass root support and politicians risk their careers if they are seen to be accepting something detrimental to Somaliland’s independence. That support is the pillar and the guardian of the Somaliland’s existence. Given the confidence and the convictions of the Somaliland people in their independence, something has to give and that can only mean war or separation.
Charles De Gaul once said, “History does not teach fatalism. There are moments when the will of a handful of free men breaks through determinism and opens up new roads”. The Somali conference in London must think boldly and seek to find a new road. Somalis must understand they are rebuilding a nation from scratch and for the sanity of their children and the future generations accept that the conditions are against Somali unity. Therefore, peaceful coexistence in a two state solution is the only viable option. However, to give a chance to those who still dream about gaining Somali unity one day, the Somaliland recognition should be given on the following conditions:
A referendum must be held for Somaliland succession in thirty years’ time. This is to give the people an opportunity to cast their votes in a less emotionally charged atmosphere.The respective two states should treat their respective peoples as citizens of their own in respect of movement, residence, trade and business until the referendum takes place. Only voting should be excluded unless proven the person resided the said country for three years continuously and this should only apply in local and presidential elections but not in the referendum. This is to foster closeness and a sense of belonging between the two nations so when the referendum comes, the result is a representation of measured individual judgement.Somaliland must assist Somalia in its search for peace and form a close cooperation with her.
Both countries must establish a common historical narration (which is impartial and truthful) to teach their school children so that the young generations learn from the mistakes of their fathers.
By Ismail Ibrahim
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