Somalis on Friday welcomed the latest international plan to end 20 years of war, anarchy, rape and starvation, but analysts said the efforts offered no new solutions for the protracted crisis.
“If so many international leaders sat down to discuss Somalia, then the world must be interested in us, and we hope it will pave the way for a better Somalia,” said Osman Deynile, a grocer in the war-ravaged capital Mogadishu.
However, others were more cynical at what impact a communique issued by a London meeting Thursday -- attended by top figures including US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN chief Ban Ki-moon -- would really have.
Translating conference rhetoric to reality faces near insurmountable obstacles in a nation emerging from famine and reeling from an Al-Qaeda allied Shebab insurgency, pirate gangs, rival warlords and rampant corruption.
“A one-day conference was never going to meet Somalia's expectations,” said Muhidin Abdulahi, a resident in Mogadishu.
“But it is the implementation of the agreement that is important, it is always easy to have well-placed remarks in a communique.” French academic Gerard Prunier said the “only concrete measure” taken was the creation of a financial system to allow donors to block the transitional federal government (TFG) from “embezzling funds. This conference was not intended to resolve Somalia's problem, it was simply meant to set up a vague financial management mechanism hoped to spare the TFG the shame of apparent corruption,” Prunier said.
The government is now akin to a “protectorate of sorts of the old colonial model... with the French, Americans and notably the British monitoring the funds of an even more weakened TFG,” he added.
Hardline Shebab rebels -- on the back foot as regional armies push forward against their bases in southern Somalia -- vowed to “wage war” against the international peace drive even before the meeting had ended.
“Efforts have been made before, so I don't think that it's really going to work... but let's wait and see,” said Fartun Mohamed, one of over 460,000 Somalis in Kenya's Dadaab refugee camp, the world's largest.
The conference dealt with the “nonentities and ne'er-do-wells” in Somalia's embattled government, which controls only the capital with the support of 10,000 African Union troops, said J. Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council think tank.
However progress for Somalia must include dealing with “people who actually control real levers of power in Somalia -- the businessmen, warlords, pirate kingpins, and others,” he added.
That includes engaging with clan elders and militia leaders currently allied to the Shebab but who are “less than thrilled by the new formal affiliation with Al-Qaeda,” Pham said.
“Peace for Somalia by Somalis -- that is what the international community should drive into the brains of the buffoon butchers that are Somali leaders,” said Bashir Omar, a refugee in the 20-year old Kenyan Dadaab camp.
But there was also respect for warnings by Clinton of sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, on those “standing in the way” of progress.
“I was impressed by Clinton's warnings... we want strong action against war criminals in Somalia, such as taking them to the international criminal court,” said Shamso Jama, a mother of three in Mogadishu.
The conference was a “critical moment” in Somalia's 20-year crisis, said Ken Menkhaus of Davidson College in North Carolina, coming as regional forces and government troops advance on extremist Shebab strongholds.
But whether the conference's legacy will be beneficial is open to question, with Menkaus noting the successor of the “weak and corrupt” government when its mandate ends in August will likely perform little better.
“What is certain is that the next few months will produce a messy, contentious scramble to accelerate the end of the transition in Somalia,” Menkhaus wrote in a paper released after the conference.
Yet that will likely work against conference ambitions for a “more inclusive and transparent transition process,” he said.
“Somalia has a long history of rushed reconciliation and power-sharing agreements, and the results have generally not been good,” Menkhaus added.
Source: AFP
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