How to Feed the World in 2050

To ensure that the world population can be fed when it nears its peak of nearly 9.2 billion people in the middle of this century

 

The prospects for agriculture

In the first half of this century, as the world’s population grows to around 9 billion, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double while, increasingly, crops may also be used for bioenergy and other industrial purposes. New and traditional demand for agricultural produce will thus put growing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts: adapting to and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping preserve natural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining a high level of biodiversity. As though this were not challenging enough, in most regions fewer people will be living in rural areas and even fewer will be farmers. They will need new technologies to grow more from less land, with fewer hands.

The problems to be resolved

• Will we be able to produce enough food at affordable prices or will rising food prices drive more of the world's population into poverty and hunger?
• How much spare capacity in terms of land and water do we have to feed the world in 2050?
• What are the new technologies that can help us use scarce resources more efficiently, increase and stabilize crop and livestock yields?
• Are we investing enough in research and development for breakthroughs to be available in time?
• Will new technologies be available to the people who will need them most - the poor?
• How much do we need to invest in order to help agriculture adapt to climate change, and how much can agriculture contribute to mitigating extreme weather events?

On horizon 2050 - billions needed for agriculture

Net investments of $83 billion a year must be made in agriculture in developing countries if there is to be enough food to feed 9.1 billion people in 2050, according to an FAO discussion paper published. 

Required investments include crops and livestock production as well as downstream support services such as cold chains, storage facilities, market facilities and first-stage processing.

Private investment essentialThe projected investment needs to 2050 include some $20 billion going to crops production and $13 billion going to livestock production, the paper said. Mechanization would account for the single biggest investment area followed by expansion and improvement of irrigation.

A further $50 billion would be needed for downstream services to help achieve a global 70 percent expansion in agricultural production by 2050.

Most of this investment, in both primary agriculture and downstream services, will come from private investors, including farmers purchasing implements and machinery and businesses investing in processing facilities.

Public investment also necessary
In addition, public funds will also be needed to achieve a better functioning of the agricultural system and food security, the paper said. Priority areas for such public investments include: i) agricultural research and development; ii) large-scale infrastructure such as roads, ports and power, and agricultural institutions and extension services; and iii) education, particularly of women, sanitation, clean water supply and healthcare. 

But in 2000 total global public spending on agricultural research and development totalled only some $23 billion and has been highly uneven. Official Development Assistance (ODA) to agriculture decreased by some 58 percent in real terms between 1980 and 2005, dropping from a 17 percent share of aid to 3.8 percent over the period. Presently it stands at around five percent. 

Of the projected new net investments in agriculture, as much as $29 billion would need to be spent in the two countries with the largest populations – India and China. As far as regions are concerned, sub-Saharan Africa would need about $11 billion invested, Latin America and the Caribbean $20 billion, the Near East and North Africa $10 billion, South Asia $20 billion and East Asia $24 billion.  

Regional differences
The projections point to wide regional differences in the impact of new investments when translated into per capita terms. Given different population growth rates, Latin America, for instance, is expected to almost halve its agricultural labour force while sub-Saharan Africa will double its own. This means that by 2050 an agricultural worker in Latin America would have 28 times the capital stock – or physical assets such as equipment, land and livestock – available as his or her colleague in sub-Saharan Africa.

Foreign direct investment in agriculture in developing countries could make a significant contribution to bridging the investment gap, the paper said.

But political and economic concerns have been raised about so-called “land grab” investments in poor, food-insecure countries. Such deals should be designed in such a way as to maximize benefits to host populations, effectively increasing their food security and reducing poverty.

2050: Climate change will worsen the plight of the poor

Poorest regions with the highest levels of chronic hunger are likely to be among the worst affected by climate change, according to an FAO discussion paper published. Many developing countries, particularly in Africa, could become increasingly dependent on food imports.

While globally the impact of climate change on food production may be small, at least until 2050, the distribution of production will have severe consequences on food security: developing countries may experience a decline of between 9 and 21 percent in overall potential agricultural productivity as a result of global warming, the paper estimated.

The paper reported that climate change is among main challenges to agriculture in feeding the world's population, projected to reach 9.1 billion people by 2050.

At the same time, several agriculture-based mitigation options for climate change could generate significant benefits for both food security and climate change adaptation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration through forestry and agro-forestry initiatives and tillage practices, improving efficiency of nutrient management and restoring degraded lands are examples of actions that have large mitigation potential and high co-benefits.

Climate change is expected to affect agriculture and forestry systems through higher temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide concentration, changes in rainfall, increased weeds, pests and diseases. In the short term, the frequency of extreme events such as droughts, heat waves, floods and severe storms is expected to increase.

Emissions from agriculture account for roughly 14 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Seventy-four percent of emissions from agriculture and most of the technical and economic mitigation potential from agriculture - some 70 percent - are in developing countries.

The FAO paper notes that a climate change agenda will need to recognize and value agriculture's potential contribution to adaptation and mitigation through options that also safeguard its contribution to food security and development.

Impact on food security
Climate change will affect the four dimensions of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization and stability, notes the FAO paper.

In terms of availability, increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to have a positive effect on the yield of many crops, even though the nutritional quality of produce may not increase in line with higher yields.

Climate change will increase the variability of agricultural production across all areas, with increased frequency of extreme climate events. The poorest regions will be exposed to the highest degree of instability of food production.

On average, food prices are expected to rise moderately in line with increases in temperature until 2050. After 2050 and with further increases in temperatures, significant decreases in agricultural production potential in developing countries are projected and prices are expected to rise more substantially.

Climate change is likely to alter the conditions for food safety by increasing the disease pressure from vector, water and food-borne diseases. The result could be a substantial decline in agricultural productivity, including labour productivity, leading to increases in poverty and mortality rates.

Africa especially vulnerable
Agricultural and food production in many developing countries are likely to be adversely affected, especially in countries that have low incomes and a high incidence of hunger and poverty and are already highly vulnerable to drought, flooding and cyclone.

In Africa this could lead to an increased dependency in many countries on food imports. It has been estimated that climate change may reduce African potential agricultural output up to the 2080-2100 period by between 15 and 30 percent.

The strongest negative impact of climate change on agriculture is expected in sub-Saharan Africa. This means that the poorest and most food insecure region is also expected to suffer the largest contraction of agricultural incomes.

The climate is right
Adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change will be costly but vital for food security, poverty reduction and maintaining the ecosystem. The current impetus for investing in improved agricultural policies, institutions and technologies to meet both food security and energy goals, provides a unique opportunity to mainstream climate change related actions into agriculture, the paper notes.

It notes that, until recently, agriculture has largely remained a marginal issue in climate change negotiations, with some exception as regards deforestation and forest degradation mitigation activities. Among the reasons FAO identifies is that the scope of existing financing mechanisms has tended to exclude many agricultural activities, including many soil carbon sequestration activities.

2050 – Africa’s food challenge

The recent positive performance of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa indicates a break with the past and the outlook for the sector is improving. However “concerted and purposeful policy action” is required to maintain the momentum, according to a new FAO discussion paper.

After decades of decline, the sub-Saharan agricultural sector — 80 percent of which consists of smallholder farmers — grew more than 3.5 percent in 2008, well above the 2 percent rate of population growth.

The gains were driven by a more favourable policy environment for agriculture in many countries and higher world prices for food commodities such as wheat and rice. Technological advances such as the New Rice for Africa drought-resistant rice variety (NERICA) have also helped boost production in the region.

“The strong potential of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is welcome news: agriculture is the backbone of overall growth for the majority of countries in the region and essential for poverty reduction and food security,” FAO Assistant Director-General Hafez Ghanem said.

The discussion paper was prepared for a High-Level Expert Forum to be held in Rome on 12-13 October 2009 to discuss strategies on “How to Feed the World in 2050”. It called for determined action in areas such as technological innovation, the development of markets and services and better management of natural resources to feed a growing population and eradicate hunger in the region.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is predicted to grow from 770 million in 2005 to 1.5 to 2 billion in 2050. Despite rapid migration from the countryside to cities and the growth in urban population, the absolute number of rural people is also likely to continue to increase.

Agriculture is the motor for rural development, poverty and hunger reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper said that agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be led by domestic and intra-African demand for food commodities due to urbanization and the growing population in the medium and long-term. 

The High-Level Forum will bring together around 300 leading experts from academic, non-governmental and private sector institutions from developing and developed countries. The aim is to prepare the ground for the World Summit on Food Security, to take place in Rome 16-18 November 2009.

Managing natural resources 
One of the main advantages of the region is its abundance of natural resources, including water, although distribution is very uneven. At the moment only 3 percent of the region’s food crops are produced using irrigation compared to more than 20 percent globally.

Irrigation would massively increase yields and output.  Land is also underused. While recognizing that any expansion of land under cultivation has environmental consequences, FAO has estimated that the potential additional land area available for cultivation in sub-Saharan Africa amounts to more than 700 million hectares.

In particular the Guinea Savannah region  — an area twice as large as that planted to wheat worldwide offers a huge production potential. At the moment, only 10 percent of the Guinea Savannah  — which covers an estimated 600 million hectares  — is currently farmed. Opening up new farmlands would require enormous investments in infrastructure and technology and safeguards to avoid negative environmental impacts. 

Other challenges
There are many other challenges that need to be overcome by governments, international donors and the private sector to improve agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa and make sure agricultural and rural growth goes hand in hand with poverty reduction.

They include slow progress in regional integration, governance and institutional shortcomings in some countries, conflicts and diseases like HIV/AIDS, connecting smallholders to markets, creating employment opportunities in rural areas and adequate training for young people.

There is a particular need for programmes and policies to increase the capacity of smallholder farmers to enter dynamic sectors of national, regional and international markets.

The report recommends reducing transaction costs due to small volumes and the amount of wastage of poor farmers’ crops, facilitating the creation of cooperatives and other forms of business associations to ensure a minimum optimal scale, and the control of quality and safety of food.

Policies are also required to protect African farmers from floods and droughts and international food price shocks. Transfer of know how and technology from rich to poor nations as well as increased investment in agricultural research are also paramount for progress to be made in tackling hunger and rural development.

Challenges of farming in Africa

• Some 218 million people in Africa, around 30 percent of the total population, are estimated to be suffering from chronic hunger and malnutrition.
• Eighty percent of Africa’s farms are less than two hectares in size and there are 33 million of them.
• Cereal yields have grown little and are still around 1.2 tonnes per hectare in the region, compared to an average of some 3 tonnes per hectare in the developing world as a whole.
• Fertilizer consumption was only 13 kg per hectare in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002, compared to 73 kg in the Middle East and North Africa and 190 kg in East Asia and the Pacific.
• Only 3 percent of land in sub-Saharan Africa is irrigated, compared to more than 20 percent globally.
• Forty percent of the population of the region lives in landlocked countries, as against only 7.5 percent in other developing countries, and transport costs in sub-Saharan Africa can be as high as 77 percent of the value of exports.

Spending on agricultural research and development is very low and actually fell during the 1990s. If Africa’s farmers can be helped to overcome these challenges and take advantage of new and improved market opportunities as the global economic crisis eases, it is widely agreed that the continent has enormous potential for growth in agriculture.

2050: Increased investment in agricultural research essential

Producing more food will largely depend on increasing crop yields, not farming more land.

Boosting agricultural production to the levels needed to feed an expanded world population will require sharply increased public investment in research and development and widespread adoption of new technologies, farming techniques and crop varieties, according to a new FAO discussion paper published.

The paper, titled "The Technology Challenge," is one of several produced by the UN food agency to serve as starting points for panel discussions at the "High-Level Expert Forum on How to Feed the World in 2050," taking place at FAO's Rome headquarters October 12-13. The Forum will prepare the ground for the World Summit on Food Security from 16 to 18 November 2009.

FAO's latest projections indicate that global agricultural production must grow by 70 percent by 2050 in order to feed an additional 2.3 billion people.

The projections indicate that most gains in production will be achieved by increasing yield growth and cropping intensity on existing farmlands rather than by increasing the amount of land brought under agricultural production.

Globally, 90 percent of required production increases are projected to come from augmenting yields and cropping intensity, and only 10 percent by expanding arable land. For developing countries, FAO estimates that ratio at 80/20. But in land-scarce countries, almost all growth would need to be achieved by improving yields.

This necessitates "pushing the agricultural technology frontier outwards" on a number of fronts, the paper says.

Climate change, water scarcity, post-harvest losses
The challenge of boosting crop yields is made more pressing by climate change.

If temperatures rise by more than 2^oC, global food production potential is expected to contract severely and yields of major crops like maize may fall. The declines will be particularly pronounced in lower-latitude regions - in Africa, Asia and Latin America, yields could drop by between 20-40 percent if effective adaptation measures are not taken.

New technologies and improved practices will therefore also be needed to deal with a changing climate - as well as with rapidly increasing water scarcity, the paper says.

Raising agricultural productivity by reducing post-harvest losses is another area where innovations are necessary.

Priority areas for action
According to the paper, there are several areas where enhanced farming techniques and new technologies could be tapped to boost production:

• Improving efficiency in farmers' use of agricultural inputs. This will become increasingly important as natural resources get scarcer and prices of resources such as fossil fuels, nitrogen and phosphorus increase.

One technique that offers promise in this regard is conservation agriculture using zero tillage - farms employing this technique reduce their fuel use by an average of two-thirds while simultaneously raising levels of soil carbon sequestration.

The paper also says that fertilizers will need to be used more efficiently through greater on-farm use of nitrogen and increasing supplies of biologically-fixed nitrogen.

Water is another resource that must be used more efficiently, through practices such as water harvesting and conservation of soil moisture.

• Developing improved crop varieties. Plant breeding techniques can lead to improved crop varieties that increase yields, decrease losses, and make agriculture more resistant to climate-associated stresses and water scarcity. However FAO's discussion paper also notes the need to evaluate new technologies carefully to avoid possible negative environmental and human-health impacts.

• Heavily investing in agricultural research and development.  Noting that investment in R&D is the most productive way to support agriculture, the paper argues that "massive public and private investments in R&D are required if agriculture is to benefit from the use of new technologies and techniques". The need for substantially higher levels of investment in agriculture R&D will further increase due to climate change and intensifying water scarcity, it adds.

• Closing existing "yield gaps".  Even as new technologies are explored, one area where progress is needed is promoting greater adoption of existing advances. Many farms today produce less food than they are capable of simply because they do not make use of enhanced seeds and cropping techniques that are currently available. Reasons for this include a lack of financial incentives, poor access to information, weak extension services, and insufficient opportunities for acquiring the necessary technical skills.

2050: A third more mouths to feed

Food production will have to increase by 70 percent.

Producing 70 percent more food for an additional 2.3 billion people by 2050 while at the same time combating poverty and hunger, using scarce natural resources more efficiently and adapting to climate change are the main challenges world agriculture will face in the coming decades, according to an FAO discussion paper published.

Cautious Optimism
"FAO is cautiously optimistic about the world's potential to feed itself by 2050," said FAO Assistant Director-General Hafez Ghanem. However, he pointed out that feeding everyone in the world by then will not be automatic and several significant challenges have to be met.

Ghanem said there was a need for a proper socioeconomic framework to address imbalances and inequalities and ensure that everyone in the world has access to the food they need and that food production is carried out in a way that reduces poverty and take account of natural resource constraints.
Global projections show that in addition to projected investments in agriculture, further significant investment will be needed to enhance access to food, otherwise some 370 million people could still be hungry in 2050, almost 5 percent of the developing countries' population.

According to the latest UN projections, world population will rise from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion in 2050 - a third more mouths to feed than there are today. Nearly all of the population growth will occur in developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa's population is expected to grow the fastest (up 108 percent, 910 million people), and East and South East Asia's the slowest (up 11 percent, 228 million).

Around 70 percent of the world population will live in cities or urban areas by 2050, up from 49 percent today.

Food demand
The demand for food is expected to continue to grow as a result both of population growth and rising incomes. Demand for cereals (for food and animal feed) is projected to reach some 3 billion tonnes by 2050. Annual cereal production will have to grow by almost a billion tonnes (2.1 billion tonnes today), and meat production by over 200 million tonnes to reach a total of 470 million tonnes in 2050, 72 percent of which will be consumed in developing countries, up from the 58 percent today.

The production of biofuels could also increase the demand for agricultural commodities, depending on energy prices and government policies.

Land
Despite the fact that 90 percent of the growth in crop production is projected to come from higher yields and increased cropping intensity, arable land will have to expand by around 120 million hectares in developing countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Arable land in use in developed countries is expected to decline by some 50 million hectares, although this could be changed by the demand for biofuels.

Globally, there are still sufficient land resources available to feed the future world population. FAO cautioned, however, that much of the potential land is suitable for growing only a few crops, not necessarily the crops with highest demand and it is concentrated in a few countries.

Much of the land not yet in use also suffers from chemical and physical constraints, endemic diseases and lack of infrastructure which cannot be easily overcome.  Therefore significant investments would need to be undertaken in order to bring it into production. Part of the land is also covered by forests, or subject to expanding urban settlements. A number of countries, particularly in the Near East/North Africa and South Asia have already reached or are about to reach the limits of land available.   

Water
Water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture are projected to grow at a slower pace due to reduced demand and improved water use efficiency, but will still increase by almost 11 percent by 2050.

Globally, fresh water resources are sufficient, but they are very unevenly distributed and water scarcity will reach alarming levels in an increasing number of countries or regions within countries, particularly in the Near East/North Africa and South Asia. Using less water and at the same time producing more food will be the key to addressing water scarcity problems. Water scarcity could be made more acute by changing rainfall patters resulting from climate change.

Yield potential
All in all, the potential to raise crop yields to feed a growing world population seems to be considerable, FAO said. "If the appropriate socio-economic incentives are in place, there are still ample ‘bridgeable' gaps in yield (i.e. differences between agro-ecologically attainable and actual yields) that could be exploited. Fears that yields are reaching a plateau do not seem warranted, except in a very few special instances."

Stronger interventions
FAO called for stronger interventions to make faster progress towards reducing and finally eliminating the number of hungry and poor people. Investment in primary agriculture should become a top priority and needs to increase by some 60 percent since agriculture not only produces food but also generates income and supports rural livelihoods.

Poverty reduction also requires investments in rural infrastructure (roads, ports, power, storage and irrigation systems); investments in institutions, research and extension services, land titles and rights, risk management, veterinary and food safety control systems; and non-agricultural investment including food safety nets and cash transfers to the most needy.

Without developing and investing in rural areas in poor countries, deprivation and inequalities will remain widespread, though significantly less than today, FAO said.